FORUM GROUP DISCUSSION (FGD) SUMBANGSIH PEMIKIRAN UNTUK PEMULIHAN EKONOMI NASIONAL

Guncangan ekonomi yang sangat cepat dan masif akibat pandemi Covid 19 dan langkah-langkah penutupan kegiatan ekonomi untuk menahan pandemi tersebut telah menjerumuskan ekonomi global ke dalam kontraksi yang parah. Menurut perkiraan Bank Dunia, ekonomi global akan menyusut sebesar 5,2% tahun ini. Penyusutan ekonomi ini menjadikan perekonomian dunia mengalami resesi terdalam sejak Perang Dunia Kedua, yang ditunjukan dengan sebagian besar ekonomi negara-negara mengalami penurunan dalam pendapatan per kapita terhitung sejak 1870 (Bank Dunia, Prospek Ekonomi Global Juni 2020).

Menurut Bank Dunia  (World Bank, 2020) Economic activity among advanced economies is anticipated to shrink 7% in 2020 as domestic demand and supply, trade, and finance have been severely disrupted. Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) are expected to shrink by 2.5% this year, their first contraction as a group in at least sixty years. Per capita incomes are expected to decline by 3.6%, which will tip millions of people into extreme poverty this year.

Dalam menghadapi resesi ekonomi menurut (Silvia, Iqbal, & House, 2017), pemulihan ekonomi dapat dihasilkan secara soft  melalui upaya-upaya yang dilakukan dengan memprediksi pemulihan ekonomi melalui teori dan model. Para pelaku ekonomi, harus lebih kritis terhadap model-model pemulihan ekonomi yang terlalu menyederhanakan, bahkan menghilangkan permasalahan kompleksitas ekonomi modern pada saat ini. Para pelaku ekonomi juga harus lebih kritis terhadap model pemulihan yang tidak relevan dalam memecahkan masalah yang tidak ingin diatasi oleh siapa pun. Sebagai pelaku ekonomi, kita harus lebih kritis terhadap model yang mengasumsikan masalah esensial untuk pemulihan ekonomi, yang dapat dicapai, dengan hasil perhitungan matematika yang tepat, di dunia yang tidak tepat, di tengah kondisi pandemi Covid 19. Para pelaku ekonomi, juga harus lebih kritis terhadap narasi yang mengklaim — shock therapy — bahwa tidak ada pemerintahan yang sebelumnya pernah mengatasimasalah ini. Sebagai pemerhati masalah – masalah ekonomi, kita harus lebih kritis terhadap model yang mengasumsikan penawaran dan permintaan, akan mencapai keseimbangan dengan cepat dan tanpa batas dan bahwa persaingan sempurna menjadi cara penyelesaian permasahan permintaan dan penawaran di pasaran.

The economic growth, it is measured by gross domestic product (GDP), it is not a fixed on value of equilibrium, but a series of values along the way of equilibrium. Economics is a study of unbalanced forces that the are acting within the growth of GDP in evolving system. Our recognition of these equilibrium of GDP forces includes the partial adjustment of both prices and quantities, the role of expectations and the differential speeds of adjustment for prices, exchange rates, and capital flows for different countries. The challenge for the decision makers is that often they are so anxious to get the answer that they ignore the path of the growth of GDP to get the equilibrium. Also, it is the path of the problem solving, the distance between equilibrium points, that allows to answer the questions under different circumstances rather than attempting to build a decision strategy that they are performs under one or more set of limited assumptions. Under this problem-solving solution that it is a closer examination of those assumptions and the implementations of the economic model, so that the implementation of the model we can appreciate the effort and sensitive of the projection of economic growth that it is come to us as the method of analysis.

Dalam berbagai pengalaman negara-negara menurut (Cristini, Fazzari, Greenberg, & Leoni, 2015). During the Russian crisis in 1998 (soon spreading in the USA, and hitting the long-term capital management (LTCM) of the hedge of fund and the US financial system. That bubble-driven expansion, centered on capital market inflation, it was resurrected for a few years of mortgage loan explosion and the ensuing US housing bubble, which it was nothing but a new kind of the usual inflation in capital prices of asset. This is become the second round of bubble-driven of the growth of capitalist, so it is the typical of the new capitalism, it was short-lived. After the deflating of housing prices which it is began in 2005, the speculative boom crashed in the summer of 2007, triggering the Great Recession, which it is mention now a better named the Lesser Depression by Brad De Long. The financial bloggers saw this coming trought, but only a few of economists such as the ‘Minsky moment’ the terminology was resurrected by George Magnus of UBS in March 2007, and spread around it with much more prominence and influence of economy than before.

Dalam kaitannya dengan pemodelan pemulihan ekonomi, menurut (Ferlito, 2013). epistemological problems have always fascinated in all circumtance, since our initial interest in economics and the history of our science. From 2000 onwards. In truth, economists today no longer discuss methodology. It is a topic by now relegated to the realm of historians of economic thought who have to analyses the comparison between objectivism and subjectivism, between pure theory and historical context, etc. …, today economists are more likely to search for ?exacts theories, functional relationships between often logically independent variables rather than to question the nature of their science.

Dengan berbagai disiplin ilmu tersebut, dari ekonomi hingga filsafat, tidak dapat dipisahkan dari manajemen. Secara makro, pemulihan ekonomi tidak dapat dipisahkan dari implementasi model dan teori yang disusun melalui mekanisme manajemen (tahapan-tahapan upaya pemulihan ekonomi). Upaya terbesar dari pemulihan ekonomi adalah terletak pada bagaimana manajemen sumber daya manusia menjadi bagian terpenting dari implementasi model pemulihan ekonomi. Oleh karena itu, IKADIM menggagas pertemuan FGD untuk memberikan sumbangsih bagi upaya pemodelan pemulihan ekonomi di tengah-tengah resesi ekonomi global saat ini.